Oceanside 1st race of the IM Series - Predictions - Mens

General
1

The start list was published yesterday on the IM website

2024 Athletic Brewing IRONMAN 70.3 Oceanside

Sam Long will have to race hard if he wants to win this race

Jelle Geens Belgian Olympic racer would be my number one pick,

There is actually other factors in the race, the IM series where the gap to the winner matters, and the qualification for the WC. Indeed, as Joe Skipper said, the WC winner gets 3000 points and even with a 8 minutes 20 seconds you get as much as from a win in the other 70.3 : 2500 points. Looking at last year, the top 15 in Lahti would have gotten more than those 2500 points. The only problem is you have to be in the top 3 to qualifiy which is not an easy feat for a typical IM athlete (like Skipper) and you have to be qualified before July to go to the WC[/font]

Several racers are already qualified so that may make it a bit easier
Those who are alreadly qualified who are supposed to get in the mix : Currie, Laundry, Quenet, Sharpe, Rodriguez Hernandez, Sanders, Long, Dubrick, Lopez, Trakic so even with a 10th place you may get a WC quali.

So that means that Lange, Skipper, Hanson, Lieferman may get a qualification yet not get that many points and not really figure in the race. Again, a TDF camera crew would be needed to show the races within the race but i doubt we will see it given even PTO was not able to deliver that !
On the other hand, there are more 70.3 races in the series than full so they may qualify elsewhere

Sanders has not really made it very clear that he will be part of the IM Series as he has only talked about Kona. Maybe he is waiting for his performance in Texas. His ability to perform on the 70.3 distance would be his strength and Sam Long (a slower swimmer than he is !) performance in Miami proved wrong those who thought/said that weaker swimmers could not be relevant any more.

Actually, the level in the IM Series may go down as two contenders Chevrot and Horseau are out of the Texas race. Horseau is racing South Africa which amazed me as he raced 4 times last year with wins in Lanza and Embrun and a 6th in Nice. Chevrot has stated a couple day ago on his IG that due to his infant daughter bringing back viruses/illnesses from daycare his training has not gone to plan and he will not race Texas.
For Europeans the fact that Cairns is the other earliear race make it more difficult and a financial bet as otherwise they have to race mid July (Vitoria), mid August (Frankfurt) and mid October (Kona)

Geens, Lange, Sperl (DEU) 14th in Lathi or Angert if he is able to get back to his 22 are my picks for the qualification. It is harder to pick for those early seasons races.

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I always root for Joe Skipper, although I can’t remember the last time he did really well in a 70.3. He might be helped by having several other relatively weak swimmers and strong bikers around him. Plus being British the crap roads will not faze him :wink:

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81 dudes. There’s going to be some packs on the bike and males interfering with the women’s race.

I really think IM should consider limiting these pro fields.

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agreed that field size will probably be the most important factor here. how on earth do you have 70 pros spaced 20 meters apart? that’s a pacechain that’s literally one mile long.

there are some strong swimmers, but not a lot. guys like lagerstrom will always swim well here, and the ITU guys will comfortably be up front, but it would be better for them to have a kanute/royle/etc. maybe currie would be strong enough to swim up to the front and then stay away. sanders is interesting because i still reckon he can bike about as well as long, and has traditionally been a better runner (remember he ran a 1:08 on this course!), so maybe he could separate himself a bit. but i don’t see huge separation between him and guys like long and laundry.

otherwise i imagine a long blob of guys exiting the water in a line and riding that way too.

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yeah, this was the case last year, wasn’t it? some back-of-the-pack men’s racers were being overtaken by the women, and tamara (after a great-for-her swim) managed to stay connected with a good group on the bike. put her intro striking position on the run, for sure.